It looks like there's another wave of cheap duped goods starting up now. There have been reports from several servers about being flooded by level 1 toons selling stacks and stacks of Queen's Garnet very cheaply. If it happens on your server don't be the sucker who buys the first few cheap stacks because it won't be long before they're selling even more for far less
There have also been a few mentions of cheap Essence of Destruction showing up in suspicious numbers on a few servers.
You've probably noticed some colors of epic gems sell better than the rare equivalents and others worse. Queen's Garnet (red) sell like crazy, Shadow Spinel (purple) hardly sell at all and other colors sell better than purple but nowhere near as well as red.
It's the same for specific cuts, some cuts that sell well as rare cuts hardly sell at all as epics. Everyone wants Queen's Garnet (red), the other gems don't sell nearly as well. Shadow Spinels (purple) have been hit the worst. Cuts like Veiled, Glinting and Etched hardly sell at all and prices are dropping fast. Yet those same cuts rare versions still sell quite well. It's the same with other colors and cuts too, Rigid Deepholm Iolite for example hardly sells at all, Sparkling, Solid and probably even Stormy far outsell Rigid... Yet Rigid Ocean Sapphire still sells well.
Ever wondered why?
Showing posts with label Gems. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gems. Show all posts
Friday, 16 December 2011
Monday, 12 December 2011
Epic Gems - How the market is shaking out
This analysis is server specific to Antonidas (US) and may not match what's happening on your server though I do believe the epic gem market is following a similar pattern on most servers.
Prior to patch 4.3 I made some educated guesses and came up with the following:
What I expected
I figured epic gems would start out insanely high priced (20k+ per gem for reds, 10k+ for other colors) and virtually none would sell at those prices. I also thought it would be possible to pick up the occasional far more reasonably priced gem out of trade chat, especially after someone spent a day or two *not selling his precious red gold mine at the crazy initial prices everyone would be asking.
For the short term (the first month or so) I decided 4-5k would be a good price to buy red epic gems at and 2-3k for other colors. The plan was to buy raw gems at those prices, then cut and resell them for a 1-2k profit (maybe even more for the first few of each color).
Over the middle term I figured red epic gems would go for around 4k raw and 5-6k cut. The other colors about 1.5-2k raw and 2-3k cut. I felt this would continue until several guilds have been farming most of the new bosses for a while, upgraded most of their gear, gemmed it with epic gems and began getting more epic gems than they use. It's hard to predict how long this phase will last, it could be just a month or so or it could last for several months.
For the long term I expected red epic gems would eventually drop to around 2k raw, 3k cut and other colors to 1k raw, 1.5-2k cut. This could take several months, particularly for red gems. Other colors will almost certainly drop in price sooner and possibly much sooner than red.
Of course there are other factors that could affect the market by increasing the availability of epic gems. For example the possible future addition of transmutes, prospecting, vendors or any other new source of gems could cause prices to drop further and faster.
Then the patch finally landed....
Prior to patch 4.3 I made some educated guesses and came up with the following:
What I expected
I figured epic gems would start out insanely high priced (20k+ per gem for reds, 10k+ for other colors) and virtually none would sell at those prices. I also thought it would be possible to pick up the occasional far more reasonably priced gem out of trade chat, especially after someone spent a day or two *not selling his precious red gold mine at the crazy initial prices everyone would be asking.
For the short term (the first month or so) I decided 4-5k would be a good price to buy red epic gems at and 2-3k for other colors. The plan was to buy raw gems at those prices, then cut and resell them for a 1-2k profit (maybe even more for the first few of each color).
Over the middle term I figured red epic gems would go for around 4k raw and 5-6k cut. The other colors about 1.5-2k raw and 2-3k cut. I felt this would continue until several guilds have been farming most of the new bosses for a while, upgraded most of their gear, gemmed it with epic gems and began getting more epic gems than they use. It's hard to predict how long this phase will last, it could be just a month or so or it could last for several months.
For the long term I expected red epic gems would eventually drop to around 2k raw, 3k cut and other colors to 1k raw, 1.5-2k cut. This could take several months, particularly for red gems. Other colors will almost certainly drop in price sooner and possibly much sooner than red.
Of course there are other factors that could affect the market by increasing the availability of epic gems. For example the possible future addition of transmutes, prospecting, vendors or any other new source of gems could cause prices to drop further and faster.
Then the patch finally landed....
Wednesday, 30 November 2011
Epic Gem Transmutes and Day 1 of Patch 4.3
Epic Gem Transmutes
4.3 has been out for a full day now and there's still no news regarding epic gem transmutes. When the patch first came out and transmutes weren't on any vendors most of us assumed they must be raid drops but after a full day with no reports of any dropping on any server it doesn't look like that's it either.
That probably means epic gem transmutes are either:
- not intended to be available yet (IMO most likely), or
- something is broken preventing them from dropping / showing up on a vendor.
At this point I'm going to assume that epic gem transmutes while they may be in the data files are not yet obtainable in game and will not be anytime soon. Maybe in some later patch a few months down the road, maybe not until the next expansion or maybe never.
4.3 has been out for a full day now and there's still no news regarding epic gem transmutes. When the patch first came out and transmutes weren't on any vendors most of us assumed they must be raid drops but after a full day with no reports of any dropping on any server it doesn't look like that's it either.
That probably means epic gem transmutes are either:
- not intended to be available yet (IMO most likely), or
- something is broken preventing them from dropping / showing up on a vendor.
At this point I'm going to assume that epic gem transmutes while they may be in the data files are not yet obtainable in game and will not be anytime soon. Maybe in some later patch a few months down the road, maybe not until the next expansion or maybe never.
Monday, 28 November 2011
Patch 4.3 - Expectations, Random Thoughts and Ramblings
Patch 4.3 is almost upon us now. Possibly as soon as tomorrow but probably still another 1-2 weeks away yet. Tomorrow according to a just released blizzard status update.
The following is an assortment of facts we can be reasonably certain of as well as my own speculations, conclusions and expectations that I've been taking into account while preparing for patch 4.3.
Potion materials requirements are being greatly reduced. Most cataclysm potions will take just a single herb and a vial to make. Expect potion prices to drop significantly and once players get used to new low prices they should start selling in greater numbers too.
Epic gem transmutes. We don't know what the materials costs will be and we don't know how the cooldowns will work either. We don't even know for sure if they'll be in the patch though it seems very likely. Blizzard hasn't said a thing about transmutes but from what they have said about the availability of epic gems don't except an instant gold mine. Transmutes will likely be limited by both high materials costs and long and/or shared cooldowns.
The following is an assortment of facts we can be reasonably certain of as well as my own speculations, conclusions and expectations that I've been taking into account while preparing for patch 4.3.
Potion materials requirements are being greatly reduced. Most cataclysm potions will take just a single herb and a vial to make. Expect potion prices to drop significantly and once players get used to new low prices they should start selling in greater numbers too.
Epic gem transmutes. We don't know what the materials costs will be and we don't know how the cooldowns will work either. We don't even know for sure if they'll be in the patch though it seems very likely. Blizzard hasn't said a thing about transmutes but from what they have said about the availability of epic gems don't except an instant gold mine. Transmutes will likely be limited by both high materials costs and long and/or shared cooldowns.
Sunday, 16 October 2011
Patch 4.3 - Which Epic Gem cuts to get first
A new gem vendor, Farah Facet, has turned up on the PTR and finally confirms that Jewelcrafting Tokens will be used to purchase the new Epic Gems.
Source: MMO Champion
It'll cost 5 tokens to buy the pattern of your choice or 4 Tokens to buy a Tome of Burning Jewels for a random pattern. According to wowhead there are 66 epic gem cuts. It'll take 264 tokens (on a single character) to buy them all with tomes or 330 to buy them straight up.
Unless you have 264 tokens on a single toon, it makes the most sense to spend 5 tokens at least until you have all the best cuts and most of the decent cuts. The following is a list of the very best selling cuts of each color based on sales of the rare gem equivalents.
Source: MMO Champion
It'll cost 5 tokens to buy the pattern of your choice or 4 Tokens to buy a Tome of Burning Jewels for a random pattern. According to wowhead there are 66 epic gem cuts. It'll take 264 tokens (on a single character) to buy them all with tomes or 330 to buy them straight up.
Unless you have 264 tokens on a single toon, it makes the most sense to spend 5 tokens at least until you have all the best cuts and most of the decent cuts. The following is a list of the very best selling cuts of each color based on sales of the rare gem equivalents.
Friday, 2 September 2011
Patch 4.3 - Last chance for Epic Gems
Patch 4.3 is in the works with a projected release sometime in November. New things for 4.3 include the Transmogrifier, Raid Finder, Void Storage, the final Cataclysm raid featuring Deathwing, 3 new 5 mans and more. There's plenty of coverage elsewhere (MMO Champion for one) on all the new stuff Blizzard has told us about. I'm going to speculate on something they still haven't told us about, Epic Gems.
Since this is the final content patch for Cataclysm, if they're going to introduce new Epic Gems it pretty much has to be in 4.3. The problem is predicting whether or not they *will introduce them at all and if they do how they'll be obtained.
Since this is the final content patch for Cataclysm, if they're going to introduce new Epic Gems it pretty much has to be in 4.3. The problem is predicting whether or not they *will introduce them at all and if they do how they'll be obtained.
Monday, 27 June 2011
Gems = Glyphs
I've long believed Blizzard really likes the way the glyph market works and wants the gem market to work in a similar way. On many servers the rare cataclysm gem market is already almost as bad as the glyph market with rare cuts selling for little more than raw gems (sometimes even less!) and only inferno rubies selling for much more than vendor price.
Everyone is expecting to make a killing on gems when 4.2 drops. I believe the patch will cause a short term spike in gem prices but it won't last very long.
So what's going to happen when all those JC's stockpiling gems log on Tuesday and start posting gems with full stacks of every cut in their bags?
Everyone is expecting to make a killing on gems when 4.2 drops. I believe the patch will cause a short term spike in gem prices but it won't last very long.
- 36 slot gem bags and cut gems stacking to 20 will make camping a whole lot easier
- everyone is stockpiling gems for the patch
- raw uncommon gem vendor prices are going down lowering the floor price for gems and ore even further
- there's a virtually unlimited supply of raw materials
So what's going to happen when all those JC's stockpiling gems log on Tuesday and start posting gems with full stacks of every cut in their bags?
The way I see it is someone will try to reset prices and the campers will go into an undercutting frenzy the likes of which we've never seen before. It won't be long before prices go right back down and stay there. Inferno Rubies might have enough demand to keep prices up for a week or so but that's about it.
My conclusion is there probably is a fair bit of gold to be made on patch day and for at least a few more days after but it'll mostly be in Inferno Rubies and it won't be the huge killing many are expecting. I'm expecting about a week of very good Inferno Ruby prices, 2-3 weeks of somewhat higher than usual Inferno Ruby prices and 2-3 days of moderately higher prices for the best cuts of other colors.
Here's a list of the gems that should have the most demand.
Bold Inferno Ruby
Brilliant Inferno Ruby
Delicate Inferno Ruby
Solid Ocean Sapphire
Rigid Ocean Sapphire
Purified Demonseye
Reckless Ember Topaz
Potent Ember Topaz
Quick Amberjewel
Fractured Amberjewel
Puissant Dream Emerald
Here's a list of the gems that should have the most demand.
Bold Inferno Ruby
Brilliant Inferno Ruby
Delicate Inferno Ruby
Solid Ocean Sapphire
Rigid Ocean Sapphire
Purified Demonseye
Reckless Ember Topaz
Potent Ember Topaz
Quick Amberjewel
Fractured Amberjewel
Puissant Dream Emerald
Tuesday, 7 June 2011
Jewelcrafting changes in 4.2 - Stacking gems and 36 slot Gem Bags!
36 Slot Gem Bag - Tailoring pattern, requires 3 Dreamcloth to craft
Obtained by doing the Mount Hyjal quest line The Molten Offensive through step 4 Filling the Moonwell which opens up the Vendor Alya Shadowstorm who sells the pattern.
Start saving up your dreamcloth and get the quest line done on your tailor ASAP when 4.2 comes out. Jewelcrafters are going to be snapping them up fast and some will buy 4 at a time.
Start buying out and stockpiling cheap, normally or even slightly above normally priced epic Spellthreads too. They should go up in price because everyone will be using their Dreamcloth to make the new gem bags. My conservative prediction is the bags will go for 5k+ (maybe a LOT more) the first week, at least 3k for several more weeks and spellthreads will jump to 1k+. It'd be a good idea to do the same with epic Leg Armors, Pristine Hide and Heavy Savage Leather too.
Bloodthirsty Jewelry 6 new ilevel 358 rare PvP rings and necklaces. Each requires 4 or 5 rare gems (Inferno Ruby, Ocean Sapphire or Amberjewel) and several Volatiles to craft. These will probably sell ok. If so they'll almost certainly contribute to rising Inferno Ruby prices (which should be rising anyhow due to increased demand for gemming all the new gear). They might even cause Amberjewel and Ocean Sapphire prices to rise a bit too.
Why is Jewelcrafting the only gear crafting profession that cannot craft any level 85 Epic gear? Show us some love Blizzard!
I intend to have a good stockpile of all rare gems, especially Inferno Rubies ready for the patch. Demand will increase for all gems and dramatically so for Inferno Rubies. On patch day the first thing I intend to do is buyout all the best selling gems at normal or lower prices. Then I'll cut enough to have at least a full stack of all of the 40 or so best selling cuts and 5-10 each of other cuts. I'll quickly post some gems and then go get that bag pattern on my tailor.
One other point to consider. Blizzard might decide to slip Epic Gems into 4.2 at the last minute. It's not a bad idea to stockpile some tokens to buy patterns with on patch day just in case they do. For those that don't mind taking some risk you might want to stockpile Pyrite Ore in case Epic Gems can be prospected or Rare Gems and Herbs for possible Epic Gem transmutes.
Obtained by doing the Mount Hyjal quest line The Molten Offensive through step 4 Filling the Moonwell which opens up the Vendor Alya Shadowstorm who sells the pattern.
Start saving up your dreamcloth and get the quest line done on your tailor ASAP when 4.2 comes out. Jewelcrafters are going to be snapping them up fast and some will buy 4 at a time.
Start buying out and stockpiling cheap, normally or even slightly above normally priced epic Spellthreads too. They should go up in price because everyone will be using their Dreamcloth to make the new gem bags. My conservative prediction is the bags will go for 5k+ (maybe a LOT more) the first week, at least 3k for several more weeks and spellthreads will jump to 1k+. It'd be a good idea to do the same with epic Leg Armors, Pristine Hide and Heavy Savage Leather too.
Cut Gems stack to 20. Note this info is datamined from the PTR. It probably will happen but you can never be certain with datamined info.
Why is Jewelcrafting the only gear crafting profession that cannot craft any level 85 Epic gear? Show us some love Blizzard!
I intend to have a good stockpile of all rare gems, especially Inferno Rubies ready for the patch. Demand will increase for all gems and dramatically so for Inferno Rubies. On patch day the first thing I intend to do is buyout all the best selling gems at normal or lower prices. Then I'll cut enough to have at least a full stack of all of the 40 or so best selling cuts and 5-10 each of other cuts. I'll quickly post some gems and then go get that bag pattern on my tailor.
One other point to consider. Blizzard might decide to slip Epic Gems into 4.2 at the last minute. It's not a bad idea to stockpile some tokens to buy patterns with on patch day just in case they do. For those that don't mind taking some risk you might want to stockpile Pyrite Ore in case Epic Gems can be prospected or Rare Gems and Herbs for possible Epic Gem transmutes.
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